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Enisey vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
7/14/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Enisey49%
×Draw28%
KAMAZ23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.34
KAMAZ
0.83

Enisey creates 61% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 88 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.50
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Enisey
1.00
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
77%
Enisey or KAMAZ
72%
Draw or KAMAZ
51%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
23%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
74%
Enisey 2+ goals
39%
Enisey 3+ goals
15%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
56%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
20%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
68%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.50 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Enisey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Enisey scores more
49%
level
28%
KAMAZ scores more
23%

Enisey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enisey vs KAMAZ

Enisey beat KAMAZ 2-1 in First League on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.