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Enisey vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
4/10/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Tsentralnyi Stadion
48%
Enisey
model favours
48%30%22%

Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Enisey48%
×Draw30%
Chelyabinsk22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.22
Chelyabinsk
0.72

Enisey creates 69% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.20
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

Enisey
0.68
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
78%
Enisey or Chelyabinsk
70%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
52%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
22%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
70%
Enisey 2+ goals
34%
Enisey 3+ goals
12%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
51%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
16%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
69%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.68 · 40 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.20 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Enisey defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Enisey scores more
48%
level
30%
Chelyabinsk scores more
22%

Enisey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Chelyabinsk

April 10, 2027: Enisey take on Chelyabinsk in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Chelyabinsk at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.