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Enisey vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
9/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
43%
Enisey
model favours
43%31%26%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Enisey43%
×Draw31%
Arsenal Tula26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.13
Arsenal Tula
0.82

Enisey creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 38 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.14
Arsenal Tula
0.95

allows per match

Enisey
0.70
Arsenal Tula
1.13

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
74%
Enisey or Arsenal Tula
69%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
57%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
68%
Enisey 2+ goals
31%
Enisey 3+ goals
11%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
56%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
20%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
62%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.70 · 43 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.14 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Arsenal Tula attack 0.95 + Enisey defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Enisey scores more
43%
level
31%
Arsenal Tula scores more
26%

Enisey at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Arsenal Tula

September 17, 2026: Enisey take on Arsenal Tula in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Arsenal Tula at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.