Arsenal Tula 2–1 Enisey: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Enisey

A. Tsaraev 90+6'

D. Lipovoy 22'

T. Shipunov 7'

8/5/2024

First League · Round 4Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula43%

×Draw28%

Enisey29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Arsenal Tula

1.30

Enisey

1.00

Arsenal Tula creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 124 away

1.17

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

Enisey

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

71%

Arsenal Tula or Enisey

72%

Draw or Enisey

57%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

20%

Enisey wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

73%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

37%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

14%

Enisey 1+ goals

63%

Enisey 2+ goals

26%

Enisey 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

60%

Enisey (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Enisey attack 1.02 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

43%

level

28%

Enisey scores more

29%

Arsenal Tula at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

22'

41'

44'

46'

D. Nduka← N. Pechenkin

46'

N. Razdorskikh← O. Dmitriev

52'

R. Denisov← A. Nadolskiy

72'

Timofey Shipunov

72'

M. Turishchev← R. Minaev

75'

S. Tkachev← A. Khabibov

78'

D. Grigoryev← T. Shipunov

78'

I. Molteninov← M. Savelyev

82'

A. Nikitin← D. Lipovoy

83'

M. Shiryaev← Y. Tses

90+6'

A. Tsaraev

Arsenal4-1-4-1

Enisey4-2-3-1

9

▼

Savelyev

7

Chukanov

10

⚽

▼

Shipunov

18

▼

88

8

33

3

▼

96

43

1

36

28

6

▼

31

44

13

78

⚽

▼

Lipovoy

20

▼

Khabibov

34

▼

Dmitriev

22

⚽

Tsaraev

88

▼

Minaev

Manager: A. Storozhuk

46'▲D. Nduka←▼N. Pechenkin

46'▲N. Razdorskikh←▼O. Dmitriev

72'▲M. Turishchev←▼R. Minaev

75'▲S. Tkachev←▼A. Khabibov

82'▲A. Nikitin←▼D. Lipovoy

Arsenal Tula substitutes

4Nduka5Razdorskikh9Turishchev11Tkachev7Nikitin8Popov21Shevchenko23Korotkov24Azyavin60Kashintsev77Melnikov90Sugrobov

Manager: A. Tikhonov

52'▲R. Denisov←▼A. Nadolskiy

78'▲D. Grigoryev←▼T. Shipunov

78'▲I. Molteninov←▼M. Savelyev

83'▲M. Shiryaev←▼Y. Tses

Enisey substitutes

4Denisov13Grigoryev28Molteninov12Shiryaev11Tikhonov20Laykin50Shamov87Mazurin