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England vs USA — Friendlies 2026

England
England
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
USA
USA
C. Wilson 77'
T. Alexander-Arnold 27'
J. Lingard 25'
11/15/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

England62%
×Draw25%
USA12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.55
USA
0.53

England creates 192% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

England
1.71
USA
0.50

allows per match

England
0.57
USA
1.40

finishing

England+0.00on par
USA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

USA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

England or draw
88%
England or USA
75%
Draw or USA
38%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
34%
USA wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
79%
England 2+ goals
46%
England 3+ goals
20%
USA 1+ goals
41%
USA 2+ goals
10%
USA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
83%
USA (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

USA away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + USA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

USA attack 0.50 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

England scores more
62%
level
25%
USA scores more
12%

England at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Lingard↳ D. Alli
27'
T. Alexander-Arnold↳ J. Sancho
46'
A. McCarthy← J. Pickford
57'
E. Dier← B. Chilwell
57'
J. Henderson← D. Alli
58'
W. Rooney← J. Lingard
62'
T. Adams← J. Green
70'
R. Loftus-Cheek← H. Winks
70'
K. Acosta← W. Trapp
76'
S. Lletget← W. McKennie
76'
K. Saief← T. Weah
77'
C. Wilson↳ F. Delph
79'
M. Rashford← C. Wilson
88'
S. Moore← J. Villafaña

Possession

63%England

Shots

11England

Statistics

EnglandUSA
Overview
63%Possession37%
11Total Shots6
3Corners3
8Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots6
8On Target2
3Off Target4
Passing
63%Possession37%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Friendlies: England 3–0 USA

England beat USA 3-0 in Friendlies on November 15, 2018.

Goals: J. Lingard (25'), T. Alexander-Arnold (27'), C. Wilson (77').

England controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.