Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

England vs Scotland — Euro Championship 2024

England
England
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Scotland
Scotland
6/18/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group D - 2Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

England82%
×Draw13%
Scotland6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
2.69
Scotland
0.56

England creates 380% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

England
3.00
Scotland
0.75

allows per match

England
0.38
Scotland
2.38

finishing

England+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

England or draw
94%
England or Scotland
87%
Draw or Scotland
18%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
61%
Scotland wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
93%
England 2+ goals
74%
England 3+ goals
49%
Scotland 1+ goals
43%
Scotland 2+ goals
11%
Scotland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
94%
Scotland (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Scotland away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Scotland defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.69

Scotland attack 0.75 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

England scores more
82%
level
13%
Scotland scores more
6%

England at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
Reece JamesEnglandEngland · D
7.9

Match Events

15'
J. McGinn
63'
J. Grealish← P. Foden
74'
M. Rashford← H. Kane
76'
S. Armstrong← B. Gilmour
86'
K. Nisbet← C. Adams
87'
S. O'Donnell

Possession

60%England

Shots

9England

Pass accuracy

52%England

Statistics

EnglandScotland
Overview
60%Possession40%
9Total Shots11
6Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots11
1On Target2
6Off Target3
2Blocked6
7Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
559Total Passes367
498Accurate Passes299
89%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: England vs Scotland

England and Scotland drew 0-0 in Euro Championship on June 18, 2021.

England controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.