England 5–0 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

England

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rep. Of Ireland

T. Harwood-Bellis 79'

J. Bowen 76'

C. Gallagher 58'

A. Gordon 55'

H. Kane 53' (pen)

11/17/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 6Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England56%

×Draw23%

Rep. Of Ireland21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.00

England

1.82

Rep. Of Ireland

1.00

England creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

0.73

1.27

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

England

1.82

Rep. Of Ireland

0.73

allows per match

England

1.27

Rep. Of Ireland

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

England or draw

79%

England or Rep. Of Ireland

77%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

44%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

32%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

84%

England 2+ goals

54%

England 3+ goals

27%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

63%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

26%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

73%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

England scores more

56%

level

23%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

21%

England at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Bellingham

England · M

8.9

Match Events

41'

41'

43'

45+3'

45+3'

51'

51'

53'

H. KanePenalty

55'

A. Gordon

58'

C. Gallagher↳ M. Guéhi

62'

T. Harwood-Bellis← K. Walker

67'

F. Azaz← C. ODowda

67'

R. Manning← F. Ebosele

67'

T. Parrott← E. Ferguson

75'

M. Rogers← A. Gordon

75'

D. Solanke← C. Gallagher

75'

J. Bowen← N. Madueke

76'

A. Moran← J. Cullen

76'

J. Bowen↳ J. Bellingham

79'

A. Gomes← C. Jones

79'

T. Harwood-Bellis↳ J. Bellingham

85'

Dara O'Shea

86'

K. McAteer← S. Szmodics

89'

Angel Gomes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandRep.

Overview

74%Possession26%

22Total Shots1

12Corners0

7Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots1

7On Target1

7Off Target0

8Blocked0

16Inside Box1

6Outside Box0

Passing

74%Possession26%

677Total Passes249

630Accurate Passes190

93%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1