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England vs Japan — Friendlies 2026

England
England
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Japan
Japan
K. Mitoma 23'
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

England56%
×Draw30%
Japan14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.25
Japan
0.48

England creates 160% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

England
1.71
Japan
0.40

allows per match

England
0.57
Japan
0.80

finishing

England+0.00on par
Japan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Japan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

England or draw
86%
England or Japan
70%
Draw or Japan
44%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
26%
Japan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
71%
England 2+ goals
36%
England 3+ goals
13%
Japan 1+ goals
38%
Japan 2+ goals
8%
Japan 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
80%
Japan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Japan away — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Japan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Japan attack 0.40 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

England scores more
56%
level
30%
Japan scores more
14%

England at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. MitomaJapanJapan · F
7.9

Match Events

23'
K. Mitoma↳ K. Nakamura
59'
L. Hall← N. O'Reilly
59'
V. Livramento← B. White
59'
J. Bowen← C. Palmer
59'
D. Solanke← P. Foden
66'
A. Seko← J. Ito
66'
K. Ogawa← A. Ueda
71'
J. Garner← K. Mainoo
71'
M. Rashford← A. Gordon
71'
J. Suzuki← K. Mitoma
71'
A. Tanaka← R. Doan
80'
Y. Sugawara← D. Kamada
80'
Y. Suzuki← H. Ito
80'
S. Machino← K. Nakamura
83'
D. Burn← M. Guehi
83'
H. Maguire← E. Konsa
90+2'
T. Watanabe
90+3'
K. Ogawa

Possession

70%England

Shots

19England

Pass accuracy

53%England

Statistics

EnglandJapan
Overview
70%Possession30%
19Total Shots7
11Corners1
7Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots7
4On Target2
5Off Target3
10Blocked2
15Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
711Total Passes317
641Accurate Passes256
90%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: England vs Japan

Japan beat England 1-0 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

Goals: K. Mitoma (23').

England controlled possession (70%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.