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England vs Ivory Coast — Friendlies 2026

England
England
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
T. Mings 90+3'
R. Sterling 45'
O. Watkins 30'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

England46%
×Draw28%
Ivory Coast26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.32
Ivory Coast
0.92

England creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

England
1.71
Ivory Coast
1.27

allows per match

England
0.57
Ivory Coast
0.93

finishing

England+0.00on par
Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Ivory Coast →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

England or draw
74%
England or Ivory Coast
72%
Draw or Ivory Coast
54%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
21%
Ivory Coast wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
73%
England 2+ goals
38%
England 3+ goals
15%
Ivory Coast 1+ goals
60%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
23%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
64%
Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Ivory Coast defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ivory Coast attack 1.27 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

England scores more
46%
level
28%
Ivory Coast scores more
26%

England at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
O. Watkins↳ R. Sterling
32'
Serge Aurier
33'
Jean Michaël Seri
40'
Serge Aurier
40'
Serge Aurier
45'
R. Sterling↳ J. Grealish
46'
K. Walker-Peters← B. White
46'
W. Boly← N. Pépé
46'
E. Agbadou← E. Bailly
46'
F. Coulibaly← M. Gradel
62'
E. Smith Rowe← J. Grealish
62'
H. Kane← O. Watkins
62'
L. Shaw← T. Mitchell
62'
P. Foden← R. Sterling
64'
G. Konan← M. Cornet
80'
C. Gallagher← J. Ward-Prowse
86'
Y. Boli← S. Haller
90+3'
P. Akouokou← J. Seri
90+3'
T. Mings↳ P. Foden

Possession

60%England

Shots

10England

Statistics

EnglandIvory
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots2
7Corners2
14Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots2
6On Target0
4Off Target2
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: England vs Ivory Coast

England beat Ivory Coast 3-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: O. Watkins (30'), R. Sterling (45'), T. Mings (90+3').

England controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 2.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.