England 4–0 Iceland: Result & Stats

England

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Iceland

Phil Foden 84', 80'

Mason Mount 24'

Declan Rice 20'

11/18/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 6Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England65%

×Draw19%

Iceland17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.09

England

2.32

Iceland

1.09

England creates 113% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

England

1.82

Iceland

0.91

allows per match

England

1.27

Iceland

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

England or draw

83%

England or Iceland

81%

Draw or Iceland

35%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

42%

Iceland wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

90%

England 2+ goals

67%

England 3+ goals

40%

Iceland 1+ goals

66%

Iceland 2+ goals

30%

Iceland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

80%

Iceland (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Iceland defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.32

Iceland attack 0.91 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

England scores more

65%

level

19%

Iceland scores more

17%

England at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Phil Foden

England · F

10.0

Match Events

11'

Birkir Már Sævarsson

12'

Kyle Walker

20'

Declan Rice↳ Phil Foden

24'

Mason Mount↳ Harry Kane

46'

Hannes Þór Halldórsson← Ögmundur Kristinsson

49'

Sverrir Ingi Ingason

54'

Birkir Már Sævarsson

54'

Birkir Már Sævarsson

62'

Hólmar Örn Eyjólfsson← Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson

64'

Harry Winks← Mason Mount

64'

Tyrone Mings← Kyle Walker

72'

Kári Árnason

73'

Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson← Albert Guðmundsson

73'

Kolbeinn Sigthorsson← Jón Daði Böðvarsson

76'

Tammy Abraham← Harry Kane

76'

Jadon Sancho← Jack Grealish

80'

Phil Foden↳ Jadon Sancho

84'

Phil Foden↳ Harry Winks

85'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles← Kieran Trippier

88'

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson← Birkir Bjarnason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandIceland

Overview

78%Possession22%

25Total Shots2

8Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

25Total Shots2

10On Target0

7Off Target2

8Blocked0

19Inside Box1

6Outside Box1

Passing

78%Possession22%

767Total Passes206

696Accurate Passes124

91%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1