England 1–2 Greece: Result & Stats

England

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Greece

J. Bellingham 87'

V. Pavlidis 90+4', 49'

10/10/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 3Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England34%

×Draw27%

Greece38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchGreece

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.27

England

1.19

Greece

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

England

1.82

Greece

1.27

allows per match

England

1.27

Greece

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Greece →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

England or draw

62%

England or Greece

73%

Draw or Greece

66%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

14%

Greece wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

70%

England 2+ goals

33%

England 3+ goals

12%

Greece 1+ goals

72%

Greece 2+ goals

36%

Greece 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

47%

Greece (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Greece away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Greece defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Greece attack 1.27 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

England scores more

34%

level

27%

Greece scores more

38%

Greece at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Bellingham

England · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

Konstantinos Koulierakis

45'

Bukayo Saka

49'

V. Pavlidis↳ K. Koulierakis

51'

N. Madueke← B. Saka

53'

Declan Rice

60'

O. Watkins← A. Gordon

66'

D. Pelkas← G. Masouras

66'

C. Zafeiris← M. Siopis

71'

Dimitrios Kourbelis

72'

D. Solanke← P. Foden

74'

P. Mantalos← D. Kourbelis

84'

Vangelis PavlidisGoal cancelled

86'

G. Vagiannidis← T. Bakasetas

86'

G. Konstantelias← C. Tzolis

87'

J. Bellingham↳ D. Solanke

90+2'

Dimitrios Pelkas

90+1'

Vangelis Pavlidis

90+4'

V. Pavlidis↳ D. Pelkas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandGreece

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots12

9Corners5

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots12

2On Target3

7Off Target2

3Blocked7

5Inside Box4

7Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

575Total Passes328

513Accurate Passes244

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides6