England 1–2 France: Result & Stats | World Cup

England

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

France

H. Kane 54' (pen)

O. Giroud 78'

A. Tchouaméni 17'

12/10/2022

World Cup · Quarter-finalsAl Bayt Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

England39%

×Draw26%

France35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchFrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.30

England

1.40

France

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.30

creates per match

1.50

1.10

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

England

2.30

France

1.50

allows per match

England

1.10

France

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

France+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

France →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

England or draw

65%

England or France

74%

Draw or France

61%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

18%

France wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

75%

England 2+ goals

41%

England 3+ goals

17%

France 1+ goals

73%

France 2+ goals

37%

France 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

53%

France (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

France away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 2.30 + France defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

France attack 1.50 + England defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

England scores more

39%

level

26%

France scores more

35%

England at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. Saka

England · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

A. Tchouaméni↳ A. Griezmann

43'

Antoine Griezmann

46'

Ousmane Dembélé

54'

H. KanePenalty

78'

O. Giroud↳ A. Griezmann

79'

M. Mount← J. Henderson

79'

R. Sterling← B. Saka

79'

K. Coman← O. Dembélé

81'

Mason MountPenalty confirmed

82'

Theo Hernández

85'

M. Rashford← P. Foden

90'

Harry Maguire

90+8'

J. Grealish← J. Stones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandFrance

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots8

5Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots8

8On Target5

4Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

503Total Passes377

441Accurate Passes306

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2