England 2–0 Costa Rica: Result & Stats | Friendlies

England

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Costa Rica

D. Welbeck 76'

M. Rashford 13'

6/7/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

England65%

×Draw22%

Costa Rica13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchCosta Rica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.68

England

1.85

Costa Rica

0.68

England creates 172% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

1.71

creates per match

0.79

0.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

England

1.71

Costa Rica

0.79

allows per match

England

0.57

Costa Rica

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Costa Rica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

England or draw

87%

England or Costa Rica

78%

Draw or Costa Rica

35%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

39%

Costa Rica wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

84%

England 2+ goals

55%

England 3+ goals

28%

Costa Rica 1+ goals

49%

Costa Rica 2+ goals

15%

Costa Rica 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

83%

Costa Rica (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Costa Rica defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Costa Rica attack 0.79 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

England scores more

65%

level

22%

Costa Rica scores more

13%

England at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Rashford↳ R. Loftus-Cheek

60'

R. Matarrita← B. Oviedo

61'

D. Welbeck← J. Vardy

61'

C. Bolaños← J. Venegas

64'

K. Trippier← T. Alexander-Arnold

64'

D. Alli← J. Henderson

65'

65'

68'

68'

69'

72'

76'

79'

J. Lingard← R. Loftus-Cheek

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EnglandCosta

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots7

9Corners1

6Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target4

Passing

73%Possession27%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2