Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

England vs Bulgaria — Euro Championship 2024

England
England
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
H. Kane 73' (pen), 49' (pen), 24'
R. Sterling 55'
9/7/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

England81%
×Draw14%
Bulgaria5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
2.38
Bulgaria
0.44

England creates 441% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

England
3.00
Bulgaria
0.50

allows per match

England
0.38
Bulgaria
1.75

finishing

England+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

England or draw
95%
England or Bulgaria
86%
Draw or Bulgaria
19%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
57%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
91%
England 2+ goals
68%
England 3+ goals
42%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
36%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
7%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
94%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Bulgaria defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Bulgaria attack 0.50 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

England scores more
81%
level
14%
Bulgaria scores more
5%

England at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
H. KaneEnglandEngland · F
9.9

Match Events

24'
H. Kane↳ R. Sterling
30'
Michael Keane
36'
Nikolay Bodurov
49'
H. KanePenalty
55'
R. Sterling↳ H. Kane
65'
K. Dimitrov← N. Bodurov
67'
M. Mount← J. Henderson
67'
K. Despodov← Marcelinho
71'
J. Sancho← R. Sterling
73'
H. KanePenalty
77'
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← H. Kane
82'
D. Mladenov← G. Ivanov
90'
Danny Rose

Possession

67%England

Shots

17England

Pass accuracy

53%England

Statistics

EnglandBulgaria
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots4
6Corners3
12Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots4
6On Target4
4Off Target0
7Blocked0
12Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
804Total Passes383
748Accurate Passes310
93%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Euro Championship: England 4–0 Bulgaria

England beat Bulgaria 4-0 in Euro Championship on September 7, 2019.

Goals: H. Kane (24', 49' pen, 73' pen), R. Sterling (55').

England controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.