England 3–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

England

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bosnia & Herzegovina

H. Kane 89'

T. Alexander-Arnold 85'

C. Palmer 60' (pen)

6/3/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

England54%

×Draw28%

Bosnia & Herzegovina18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.64

England

1.35

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.64

England creates 111% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

0.71

0.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

England

1.71

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.71

allows per match

England

0.57

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

England or draw

82%

England or Bosnia & Herzegovina

72%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

46%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

26%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

74%

England 2+ goals

39%

England 3+ goals

15%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

47%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

14%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

75%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.71 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

England scores more

54%

level

28%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

18%

England at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Alexander-Arnold

England · M

8.3

Match Events

29'

Marc Guéhi

59'

Ezri KonsaPenalty confirmed

59'

Benjamin Tahirović

60'

C. PalmerPenalty

61'

H. Kane← O. Watkins

61'

J. Maddison← C. Palmer

62'

J. Branthwaite← M. Guéhi

62'

J. Grealish← E. Eze

62'

A. Wharton← K. Trippier

63'

D. Huseinbašić← D. Šarić

64'

Jusuf Gazibegović

73'

J. Gomez← L. Dunk

74'

H. Tabaković← E. Demirović

74'

N. Mujakić← E. Bičakčić

74'

D. Hadžikadunić← S. Radeljić

76'

Jarrad Branthwaite

82'

D. Burnić← A. Gigović

82'

T. Muharemović← A. Ahmedhodžić

85'

T. Alexander-Arnold↳ J. Grealish

89'

H. Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandBosnia

Overview

71%Possession29%

25Total Shots1

11Corners2

7Fouls16

Shots

25Total Shots1

8On Target0

5Off Target0

12Blocked1

18Inside Box0

7Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

660Total Passes277

596Accurate Passes206

90%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1