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England vs Austria — Friendlies 2026

England
England
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria
Austria
B. Saka 56'
6/2/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

England37%
×Draw29%
Austria34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.14
Austria
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

England
1.71
Austria
1.57

allows per match

England
0.57
Austria
0.57

finishing

England+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

England or draw
66%
England or Austria
71%
Draw or Austria
63%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
15%
Austria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
68%
England 2+ goals
32%
England 3+ goals
11%
Austria 1+ goals
66%
Austria 2+ goals
29%
Austria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
52%
Austria (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Austria away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Austria defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.14

Austria attack 1.57 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

England scores more
37%
level
29%
Austria scores more
34%

England at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Xaver Schlager
52'
Stefan Lainer
56'
B. Saka
61'
J. Ward-Prowse← D. Rice
61'
O. Watkins← J. Lingard
61'
B. Godfrey← T. Mings
62'
D. Calvert-Lewin← H. Kane
62'
F. Grillitsch← K. Laimer
62'
L. Schaub← C. Baumgartner
66'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
71'
B. White← J. Grealish
71'
M. Gregoritsch← S. Kalajdzic
71'
A. Schöpf← D. Alaba
81'
J. Baumgartlinger← X. Schlager
81'
C. Trimmel← S. Lainer
86'
Martin Hinteregger
88'
Trent Alexander-Arnold

Possession

45%England

Shots

7England

Statistics

EnglandAustria
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots6
4Corners4
8Fouls20
Shots
7Total Shots6
4On Target2
3Off Target4
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls20
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Friendlies: England 1–0 Austria

England beat Austria 1-0 in Friendlies on June 2, 2021.

Goals: B. Saka (56').

Austria controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.