England U23 W 1–1 Portugal U23 W: Result & Stats

England U23 W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portugal U23 W

K. Barry 56'

N. Bravo 8'

10/27/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

England U23 W54%

×Draw26%

Portugal U23 W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U23 WExpected goals in this matchPortugal U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.81

England U23 W

1.53

Portugal U23 W

0.81

England U23 W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.56

creates per match

0.50

1.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

England U23 W

1.56

Portugal U23 W

0.50

allows per match

England U23 W

1.11

Portugal U23 W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U23 W+0.00on par

Portugal U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U23 W ↓

Portugal U23 W →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

England U23 W or draw

80%

England U23 W or Portugal U23 W

74%

Draw or Portugal U23 W

46%

Winning margin

England U23 W wins by 2+

28%

Portugal U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

England U23 W 1+ goals

78%

England U23 W 2+ goals

45%

England U23 W 3+ goals

20%

Portugal U23 W 1+ goals

56%

Portugal U23 W 2+ goals

19%

Portugal U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

England U23 W (draw refunded)

73%

Portugal U23 W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

England U23 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Portugal U23 W away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

England U23 W attack 1.56 + Portugal U23 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Portugal U23 W attack 0.50 + England U23 W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

England U23 W scores more

54%

level

26%

Portugal U23 W scores more

20%

England U23 W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "England U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

N. Bravo

56'

K. Barry

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff