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England U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

England U23 W
England U23 W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Netherlands U23 W
Netherlands U23 W
I. Goodwin 46'
4/13/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

England U23 W34%
×Draw26%
Netherlands U23 W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U23 W
1.28
Netherlands U23 W
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

England U23 W
1.56
Netherlands U23 W
1.67

allows per match

England U23 W
1.11
Netherlands U23 W
1.00

finishing

England U23 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U23 W ↓

Netherlands U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

England U23 W or draw
60%
England U23 W or Netherlands U23 W
74%
Draw or Netherlands U23 W
66%

Winning margin

England U23 W wins by 2+
15%
Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

England U23 W 1+ goals
72%
England U23 W 2+ goals
37%
England U23 W 3+ goals
14%
Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals
75%
Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals
40%
Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

England U23 W (draw refunded)
47%
Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U23 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Netherlands U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U23 W attack 1.56 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Netherlands U23 W attack 1.67 + England U23 W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

England U23 W scores more
34%
level
26%
Netherlands U23 W scores more
40%

Netherlands U23 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Netherlands U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
I. Goodwin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: England U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W

England U23 W beat Netherlands U23 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on April 13, 2026.

Goals: I. Goodwin (46').