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England U23 W vs Belgium U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

England U23 W
England U23 W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Belgium U23 W
Belgium U23 W
F. Godfrey 19'
M. Kearns 15'
D. Vanmechelen 3'
4/6/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesPalacio de Deportes de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

England U23 W58%
×Draw23%
Belgium U23 W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U23 W
1.78
Belgium U23 W
0.89

England U23 W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

England U23 W
1.56
Belgium U23 W
0.67

allows per match

England U23 W
1.11
Belgium U23 W
2.00

finishing

England U23 W+0.00on par
Belgium U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U23 W ↓

Belgium U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

England U23 W or draw
81%
England U23 W or Belgium U23 W
77%
Draw or Belgium U23 W
42%

Winning margin

England U23 W wins by 2+
33%
Belgium U23 W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

England U23 W 1+ goals
83%
England U23 W 2+ goals
53%
England U23 W 3+ goals
26%
Belgium U23 W 1+ goals
59%
Belgium U23 W 2+ goals
22%
Belgium U23 W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

England U23 W (draw refunded)
76%
Belgium U23 W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U23 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Belgium U23 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U23 W attack 1.56 + Belgium U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Belgium U23 W attack 0.67 + England U23 W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

England U23 W scores more
58%
level
23%
Belgium U23 W scores more
19%

England U23 W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "England U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Vanmechelen
15'
M. Kearns
19'
F. Godfrey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: England U23 W 2–1 Belgium U23 W

England U23 W beat Belgium U23 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on April 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Vanmechelen (3'), M. Kearns (15'), F. Godfrey (19').

The match was played at Palacio de Deportes de Murcia in Murcia.