England U20 W 1–0 Canada U20 W: Result & Stats

England U20 W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Canada U20 W

L. Harbert 90'

6/3/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

England U20 W26%

×Draw23%

Canada U20 W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U20 WExpected goals in this matchCanada U20 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.80

England U20 W

1.24

Canada U20 W

1.80

Canada U20 W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

1.60

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

England U20 W

1.80

Canada U20 W

2.00

allows per match

England U20 W

1.60

Canada U20 W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U20 W+0.00on par

Canada U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U20 W ↓

Canada U20 W →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

England U20 W or draw

50%

England U20 W or Canada U20 W

77%

Draw or Canada U20 W

74%

Winning margin

England U20 W wins by 2+

11%

Canada U20 W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

England U20 W 1+ goals

71%

England U20 W 2+ goals

35%

England U20 W 3+ goals

13%

Canada U20 W 1+ goals

83%

Canada U20 W 2+ goals

54%

Canada U20 W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

England U20 W (draw refunded)

34%

Canada U20 W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

England U20 W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Canada U20 W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

England U20 W attack 1.80 + Canada U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Canada U20 W attack 2.00 + England U20 W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

England U20 W scores more

26%

level

23%

Canada U20 W scores more

50%

Canada U20 W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Canada U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

L. Harbert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff