Zhejiang Yiteng 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Zhejiang Yiteng

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

3/24/2018

League One · Round 4Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng39%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhejiang YitengExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.55

Zhejiang Yiteng

1.60

Hangzhou Greentown

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

2.07

creates per match

1.71

1.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng

2.07

Hangzhou Greentown

1.71

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng

1.40

Hangzhou Greentown

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw

63%

Zhejiang Yiteng or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

61%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+

19%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals

80%

Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals

47%

Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals

22%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

79%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

46%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)

51%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.07 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more

39%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

37%

Zhejiang Yiteng at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zhejiang Yiteng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff