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England U19 vs North Macedonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

England U19
England U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
North Macedonia U19
North Macedonia U19
11/16/2019UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

England U1975%
×Draw15%
North Macedonia U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U19
2.61
North Macedonia U19
0.84

England U19 creates 211% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

England U19
3.22
North Macedonia U19
1.25

allows per match

England U19
0.44
North Macedonia U19
2.00

finishing

England U19+0.00on par
North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

England U19 or draw
90%
England U19 or North Macedonia U19
85%
Draw or North Macedonia U19
25%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+
53%
North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals
93%
England U19 2+ goals
73%
England U19 3+ goals
47%
North Macedonia U19 1+ goals
57%
North Macedonia U19 2+ goals
21%
North Macedonia U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)
88%
North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 3.22 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.61

North Macedonia U19 attack 1.25 + England U19 defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

England U19 scores more
75%
level
15%
North Macedonia U19 scores more
10%

England U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: England U19 5–0 North Macedonia U19

England U19 beat North Macedonia U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Trening centar Petar Miloševski in Skopje.