England U19 0–0 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

England U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montenegro U19

10/11/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

England U1961%

×Draw24%

Montenegro U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.72

England U19

1.71

Montenegro U19

0.72

England U19 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

1.00

0.45

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

England U19

1.95

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

England U19

0.45

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

85%

England U19 or Montenegro U19

76%

Draw or Montenegro U19

39%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

35%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

82%

England U19 2+ goals

51%

England U19 3+ goals

24%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

51%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

16%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

England U19 scores more

61%

level

24%

Montenegro U19 scores more

15%

England U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

A. Bulatovic

54'

L. Lecic

60'

B. Mrvaljević← A. Camaj

60'

N. Medojević← S. Đukanović

64'

D. Miranovic

65'

N. Lowe← D. Ballard

65'

O. Kellyman← S. Sachdev

70'

J. Bellingham

80'

S. Radojević← A. Bulatović

84'

C. Scanlon← R. Esse

87'

L. Bubanja← S. Golubović

90+6'

N. Medojevic

England

Montenegro

1

15

5

3

4

6

8

▼

Đukanović

7

Perović

20

▼

Camaj

10

▼

Bulatović

9

▼

1

18

6

5

12

▼

10

4

8

20

▼

Esse

9

▼

Ballard

17

Blake

Manager: S. Rusk

65'▲N. Lowe←▼D. Ballard

65'▲O. Kellyman←▼S. Sachdev

84'▲C. Scanlon←▼R. Esse

England U19 substitutes

14Lowe11Kellyman3Scanlon15Dorrington13Cisse19Taylor16Buck2Carrington

Manager: G. Perišić

60'▲B. Mrvaljević←▼A. Camaj

60'▲N. Medojević←▼S. Đukanović

80'▲S. Radojević←▼A. Bulatović

87'▲L. Bubanja←▼S. Golubović

Montenegro U19 substitutes

11Mrvaljević16Medojević18Radojević17Bubanja14Vujović19Roganović12Bobičić2Ljutica21Vračar

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 0–0 Montenegro U19

England U19 and Montenegro U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2023.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.

England U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 0–0 Montenegro U19