England U19 2–0 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

England U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania U19

S. Mheuka 47', 16' (pen)

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

England U1968%

×Draw21%

Lithuania U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.61

England U19

1.90

Lithuania U19

0.61

England U19 creates 211% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

0.77

0.45

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

England U19

1.95

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

England U19

0.45

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

89%

England U19 or Lithuania U19

79%

Draw or Lithuania U19

32%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

42%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

85%

England U19 2+ goals

56%

England U19 3+ goals

29%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

46%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

13%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

England U19 scores more

68%

level

21%

Lithuania U19 scores more

11%

England U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. MheukaPenalty

25'

M. Dowman

47'

S. Mheuka↳ R. Ngumoha

61'

J. Derry← M. Dowman

62'

S. Mfuni

68'

K. Noble← S. Mfuni

68'

D. Mukasa← R. Ngumoha

70'

K. Noble

74'

C. Rigg

77'

H. Armstrong← C. Rigg

77'

J. Alisauskas← G. Emerhi

77'

A. Buikus← D. Grudzinskas

77'

D. Jermakovas← N. Garbaliauskas

87'

J. Turcinskas

90+1'

M. Ambrazaitis← J. Turcinskas

England

Lithuania

1

Lysionok

16

▼

5

4

13

8

14

6

▼

Grudzinsk

11

▼

Emerhi

9

▼

7

1

5

4

3

▼

Mfuni

18

Sidibe

7

Moore

11

▼

Rigg

12

Amass

14

▼

Dowman

9

⚽2

Mheuka

17

A

▼

Ngumoha

Manager: Will Antwi

61'▲J. Derry←▼M. Dowman

68'▲K. Noble←▼S. Mfuni

68'▲D. Mukasa←▼R. Ngumoha

77'▲H. Armstrong←▼C. Rigg

England U19 substitutes

13Ranson2Shahar6Noble8Armstrong10Mukasa15Amissah16Fletcher19Derry20Monga

Manager: R. Breu

77'▲J. Alisauskas←▼G. Emerhi

77'▲A. Buikus←▼D. Grudzinskas

77'▲D. Jermakovas←▼N. Garbaliauskas

90+1'▲M. Ambrazaitis←▼J. Turcinskas

Lithuania U19 substitutes

12Semaska2Alisauskas3Balsys10Leipus17Barrenechea18Buikus19Jermakovas21Ambrazaitis23Petkus

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 2–0 Lithuania U19

England U19 beat Lithuania U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2025.

Goals: S. Mheuka (16' pen, 47').

England U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 2–0 Lithuania U19