England U19 3–0 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

England U19

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Latvia U19

G. Hirst 82'

E. Nketiah 52'

M. Mount 22'

3/24/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Telekom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

England U1969%

×Draw16%

Latvia U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

1.35

England U19

2.95

Latvia U19

1.35

England U19 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

3.30

creates per match

2.20

0.50

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

England U19

3.30

Latvia U19

2.20

allows per match

England U19

0.50

Latvia U19

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

85%

England U19 or Latvia U19

84%

Draw or Latvia U19

31%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

49%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

95%

England U19 2+ goals

79%

England U19 3+ goals

55%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

74%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

39%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 3.30 + Latvia U19 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.95

Latvia U19 attack 2.20 + England U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

England U19 scores more

69%

level

16%

Latvia U19 scores more

15%

England U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Mount

52'

E. Nketiah

65'

K. Puriņš← B. Samoilovs

68'

E. Francis← A. Lewis

71'

E. Embleton← R. Nelson

82'

G. Hirst

84'

B. Wilmot← J. Tanganga

84'

A. Jaunzems← K. Čudars

England

Latvia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Simpson

68'▲E. Francis←▼A. Lewis

71'▲E. Embleton←▼R. Nelson

84'▲B. Wilmot←▼J. Tanganga

England U19 substitutes

17Francis18Embleton20Wilmot14Sancho12Sterling9Brereton13Cumming19McGuane16Foden

Manager: A. Basov

65'▲K. Puriņš←▼B. Samoilovs

84'▲A. Jaunzems←▼K. Čudars

Latvia U19 substitutes

7Puriņš16Jaunzems6Pelcis12Soloha15Savčenko23Serdcevs

Match Recap: England U19 vs Latvia U19

England U19 beat Latvia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 24, 2018.

Goals: M. Mount (22'), E. Nketiah (52'), G. Hirst (82').

The match was played at Telekom Arena in Skopje.

England U19 vs Latvia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: England U19 vs Latvia U19