England U19 0–1 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

England U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland U19

3/25/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

England U1954%

×Draw24%

Iceland U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.96

England U19

1.67

Iceland U19

0.96

England U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

1.47

0.45

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

England U19

1.95

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

England U19

0.45

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

78%

England U19 or Iceland U19

76%

Draw or Iceland U19

46%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

29%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

81%

England U19 2+ goals

50%

England U19 3+ goals

23%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

62%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

25%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

England U19 scores more

54%

level

24%

Iceland U19 scores more

22%

England U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff