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England U19 vs Hungary U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

England U19
England U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hungary U19
Hungary U19
3/22/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

England U1954%
×Draw26%
Hungary U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U19
1.48
Hungary U19
0.76

England U19 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

England U19
1.95
Hungary U19
1.07

allows per match

England U19
0.45
Hungary U19
1.00

finishing

England U19+0.00on par
Hungary U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Hungary U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

England U19 or draw
81%
England U19 or Hungary U19
74%
Draw or Hungary U19
46%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+
28%
Hungary U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals
77%
England U19 2+ goals
43%
England U19 3+ goals
19%
Hungary U19 1+ goals
53%
Hungary U19 2+ goals
18%
Hungary U19 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Hungary U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Hungary U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Hungary U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hungary U19 attack 1.07 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

England U19 scores more
54%
level
26%
Hungary U19 scores more
19%

England U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 1–0 Hungary U19

England U19 beat Hungary U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.