England U19 4–0 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

England U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Armenia U19

S. Edozie 76'

J. Quansah 56'

N. Manukyan 38' (OG)

A. Devine 6'

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

England U1971%

×Draw18%

Armenia U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.72

England U19

2.19

Armenia U19

0.72

England U19 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.00

0.45

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

England U19

1.95

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

England U19

0.45

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

89%

England U19 or Armenia U19

82%

Draw or Armenia U19

29%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

47%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

89%

England U19 2+ goals

64%

England U19 3+ goals

37%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

51%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

16%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.19

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

England U19 scores more

71%

level

18%

Armenia U19 scores more

11%

England U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Devine

38'

N. ManukyanOwn goal

46'

51'

56'

58'

58'

59'

59'

62'

62'

63'

M. Hakobyan← E. Piloyan

63'

V. Muradyan← L. Vardanyan

73'

J. Balagizi← A. Devine

73'

J. Norris← J. Quansah

73'

Y. Martirosyan← D. Sargsyan

76'

S. Edozie

77'

D. Oyegoke← B. Norton-Cuffy

86'

R. Abrahamyan

86'

H. Asatryan← N. Manukyan

86'

T. Sargsyan← H. Sargsyan

87'

T. Sharman-Lowe← M. Cox

England

Armenia

12

17

5

2

14

▼

Sargsyan

20

▼

Piloyan

19

🥅

▼

Manukyan

3

Makhsudya

18

▼

Sargsyan

7

▼

Vardanyan

9

Minasyan

1

▼

Cox

16

Humphreys

6

⚽

▼

Quansah

5

Edwards

2

▼

Norton-Cu

14

Simons

8

Chukwueme

11

▼

Vale

7

⚽

▼

Devine

19

Delap

17

⚽

Edozie

Manager: I. Foster

46'▲D. Jebbison←▼H. Vale

73'▲J. Balagizi←▼A. Devine

73'▲J. Norris←▼J. Quansah

77'▲D. Oyegoke←▼B. Norton-Cuffy

87'▲T. Sharman-Lowe←▼M. Cox

England U19 substitutes

20Jebbison18Balagizi15Norris12Oyegoke13Sharman-Lowe3Doyle9Scarlett4Iroegbunam

Manager: V. Avetisyan

63'▲M. Hakobyan←▼E. Piloyan

63'▲V. Muradyan←▼L. Vardanyan

73'▲Y. Martirosyan←▼D. Sargsyan

86'▲H. Asatryan←▼N. Manukyan

86'▲T. Sargsyan←▼H. Sargsyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

10Hakobyan8Muradyan22Martirosyan23Asatryan13Sargsyan1Martirosyan4Gevorgyan11Hayrapetyan

Match Recap: England U19 vs Armenia U19

England U19 beat Armenia U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2022.

Goals: A. Devine (6'), N. Manukyan (38' o.g.), J. Quansah (56'), S. Edozie (76').

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.

England U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: England U19 vs Armenia U19