England U19 4–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

England U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Andorra U19

D. Scarlett 66' (pen), 55'

Carney Chukwuemeka 41'

S. Iling-Junior 24'

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

England U1978%

×Draw17%

Andorra U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.39

England U19

2.10

Andorra U19

0.39

England U19 creates 438% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

0.33

0.45

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

England U19

1.95

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

England U19

0.45

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

England U19 or draw

94%

England U19 or Andorra U19

83%

Draw or Andorra U19

22%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+

52%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals

88%

England U19 2+ goals

62%

England U19 3+ goals

35%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

32%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

6%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 1.95 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.10

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

England U19 scores more

78%

level

17%

Andorra U19 scores more

6%

England U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

S. Iling-Junior

41'

Carney Chukwuemeka

55'

D. Scarlett

63'

N. John← A. Scott

63'

O. Giraud-Hutchinson← S. Iling-Junior

66'

D. ScarlettPenalty

70'

Martí Calvo← Daniel Bienert

70'

Hugo Rodrigues← Hugo Silva

72'

D. Jebbison← D. Scarlett

72'

J. Balagizi← A. Ramsey

79'

C. Doyle← L. Colwill

79'

Gino Romano← Gerard García

89'

Eric Sanjuame← Alex Rente

89'

Fabio Montenegro Burgos← Alessio Burgos

England

Andorra

13

4

2

5

20

▼

Burgos

10

Müller

6

▼

Bienert

8

▼

Silva

11

▼

García

9

Martinez

7

▼

13

2

12

5

▼

Colwill

10

▼

Ramsey

4

⚽

Chukwueme

11

Vale

15

Edwards

7

⚽

▼

Iling-Jun

9

⚽2

▼

Scarlett

8

▼

Scott

Manager: I. Foster

63'▲N. John←▼A. Scott

63'▲O. Giraud-Hutchinson←▼S. Iling-Junior

72'▲D. Jebbison←▼D. Scarlett

72'▲J. Balagizi←▼A. Ramsey

79'▲C. Doyle←▼L. Colwill

England U19 substitutes

14John20Giraud-Hutchinson19Jebbison18Balagizi3Doyle16Webster6Baptiste17Soonsup-Bell1Cox

Manager: Eloy Casals

70'▲Martí Calvo←▼Daniel Bienert

70'▲Hugo Rodrigues←▼Hugo Silva

79'▲Gino Romano←▼Gerard García

89'▲Eric Sanjuame←▼Alex Rente

89'▲Fabio Montenegro Burgos←▼Alessio Burgos

Andorra U19 substitutes

14Calvo19Rodrigues17Romano15Sanjuame23Burgos1Alvarez22Machado