England U18 4–1 Morocco U18: Result & Stats

England U18

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morocco U18

9/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

England U1864%

×Draw19%

Morocco U1817%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

England U18Expected goals in this matchMorocco U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.13

England U18

2.35

Morocco U18

1.13

England U18 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.20

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

England U18

2.20

Morocco U18

1.25

allows per match

England U18

1.00

Morocco U18

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England U18+0.00on par

Morocco U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U18 ↓

Morocco U18 →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

England U18 or draw

83%

England U18 or Morocco U18

81%

Draw or Morocco U18

36%

Winning margin

England U18 wins by 2+

42%

Morocco U18 wins by 2+

Team goals

England U18 1+ goals

90%

England U18 2+ goals

68%

England U18 3+ goals

41%

Morocco U18 1+ goals

68%

Morocco U18 2+ goals

31%

Morocco U18 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

England U18 (draw refunded)

79%

Morocco U18 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

England U18 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Morocco U18 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

England U18 attack 2.20 + Morocco U18 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Morocco U18 attack 1.25 + England U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

England U18 scores more

64%

level

19%

Morocco U18 scores more

17%

England U18 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "England U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff