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England U18 vs Germany U18 — Friendlies 2026

England U18
England U18
FT
0 – 0
Germany U18
Germany U18
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

England U1851%
×Draw26%
Germany U1823%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U18
1.50
Germany U18
0.90

England U18 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

England U18
2.20
Germany U18
0.80

allows per match

England U18
1.00
Germany U18
0.80

finishing

England U18+0.00on par
Germany U18+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U18 ↓

Germany U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

England U18 or draw
77%
England U18 or Germany U18
74%
Draw or Germany U18
49%

Winning margin

England U18 wins by 2+
26%
Germany U18 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

England U18 1+ goals
78%
England U18 2+ goals
44%
England U18 3+ goals
19%
Germany U18 1+ goals
59%
Germany U18 2+ goals
23%
Germany U18 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

England U18 (draw refunded)
69%
Germany U18 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U18 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Germany U18 away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U18 attack 2.20 + Germany U18 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Germany U18 attack 0.80 + England U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

England U18 scores more
51%
level
26%
Germany U18 scores more
23%

England U18 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "England U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: England U18 vs Germany U18

England U18 and Germany U18 drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.