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England U17 vs Switzerland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

England U17
England U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
5/24/2023UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 3Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

England U1748%
×Draw24%
Switzerland U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U17
1.64
Switzerland U17
1.17

England U17 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

England U17
1.60
Switzerland U17
1.33

allows per match

England U17
1.00
Switzerland U17
1.67

finishing

England U17+0.00on par
Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U17 ↓

Switzerland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

England U17 or draw
73%
England U17 or Switzerland U17
76%
Draw or Switzerland U17
52%

Winning margin

England U17 wins by 2+
25%
Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

England U17 1+ goals
81%
England U17 2+ goals
49%
England U17 3+ goals
23%
Switzerland U17 1+ goals
69%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
33%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

England U17 (draw refunded)
64%
Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U17 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Switzerland U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U17 attack 1.60 + Switzerland U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Switzerland U17 attack 1.33 + England U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

England U17 scores more
48%
level
24%
Switzerland U17 scores more
27%

England U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship: England U17 0–0 Switzerland U17

England U17 and Switzerland U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.