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England U17 vs Netherlands U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

England U17
England U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Netherlands U17
Netherlands U17
3/28/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

England U1769%
×Draw18%
Netherlands U1713%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U17
2.30
Netherlands U17
0.87

England U17 creates 164% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

England U17
3.22
Netherlands U17
1.13

allows per match

England U17
0.61
Netherlands U17
1.38

finishing

England U17+0.00on par
Netherlands U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U17 ↓

Netherlands U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

England U17 or draw
87%
England U17 or Netherlands U17
82%
Draw or Netherlands U17
31%

Winning margin

England U17 wins by 2+
46%
Netherlands U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

England U17 1+ goals
90%
England U17 2+ goals
67%
England U17 3+ goals
40%
Netherlands U17 1+ goals
58%
Netherlands U17 2+ goals
22%
Netherlands U17 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

England U17 (draw refunded)
84%
Netherlands U17 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U17 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Netherlands U17 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U17 attack 3.22 + Netherlands U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.30

Netherlands U17 attack 1.13 + England U17 defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

England U17 scores more
69%
level
18%
Netherlands U17 scores more
13%

England U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: England U17 vs Netherlands U17

Netherlands U17 beat England U17 1-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Zuid in Katwijk.