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England U17 vs Malta U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

England U17
England U17
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malta U17
Malta U17
10/24/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

England U1790%
×Draw7%
Malta U173%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U17
3.54
Malta U17
0.51

England U17 creates 594% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

England U17
3.22
Malta U17
0.40

allows per match

England U17
0.61
Malta U17
3.87

finishing

England U17+0.00on par
Malta U17+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U17 ↓

Malta U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

England U17 or draw
97%
England U17 or Malta U17
93%
Draw or Malta U17
10%

Winning margin

England U17 wins by 2+
76%
Malta U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

England U17 1+ goals
97%
England U17 2+ goals
86%
England U17 3+ goals
66%
Malta U17 1+ goals
40%
Malta U17 2+ goals
9%
Malta U17 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

England U17 (draw refunded)
97%
Malta U17 (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U17 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Malta U17 away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U17 attack 3.22 + Malta U17 defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 3.54

Malta U17 attack 0.40 + England U17 defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

England U17 scores more
90%
level
7%
Malta U17 scores more
3%

England U17 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: England U17 4–0 Malta U17

England U17 beat Malta U17 4-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.