England U17 vs Latvia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
England U1770%
Latvia U1714%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
England U17 creates 143% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
England U17 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
England U17 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches
Latvia U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
England U17 attack 3.22 + Latvia U17 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.65
Latvia U17 attack 1.57 + England U17 defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
England U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Belgium U17
France U17
Spain U17
Republic of Ireland U17
Italy U17
Czech Republic U17
Sweden U17
Turkey U17
Hungary U17
Croatia U17
Denmark U17
Israel U17
Montenegro U17
Serbia U17
Scotland U17
Bulgaria U17
Romania U17
Finland U17
Slovenia U17
Germany U17
Netherlands U17
Greece U17
Iceland U17
Switzerland U17
Austria U17
Portugal U17
Ukraine U17Latvia U17
Georgia U17
Poland U17
Cyprus U17
Lithuania U17
Kazakhstan U17
Slovakia U17
Wales U17
Moldova U17
Belarus U17England U17
Faroe Islands U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Norway U17
Northern Ireland U17
North Macedonia U17
Luxembourg U17
Armenia U17
Andorra U17
San Marino U17
Azerbaijan U17
Albania U17
Malta U17
Kosovo U17
Estonia U17
Liechtenstein U17
Gibraltar U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
England U17 host Latvia U17 on Sunday, 27 October 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
England U17 4 – 0 Latvia U17
England U17 beat Latvia U17 4-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 27, 2024.
Goals: L. Rawlings (17'), L. Williams-Barnett (30'), I. Tyjon (34'), H. Howell (57').
The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.