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England U17 vs Hungary U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

England U17
England U17
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hungary U17
Hungary U17
3/23/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4St George’s Park - Pitch 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England U1774%
×Draw16%
Hungary U1710%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U17
2.48
Hungary U17
0.80

England U17 creates 210% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

England U17
3.22
Hungary U17
1.00

allows per match

England U17
0.61
Hungary U17
1.73

finishing

England U17+0.00on par
Hungary U17+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U17 ↓

Hungary U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

England U17 or draw
90%
England U17 or Hungary U17
84%
Draw or Hungary U17
26%

Winning margin

England U17 wins by 2+
51%
Hungary U17 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

England U17 1+ goals
92%
England U17 2+ goals
70%
England U17 3+ goals
44%
Hungary U17 1+ goals
55%
Hungary U17 2+ goals
19%
Hungary U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

England U17 (draw refunded)
88%
Hungary U17 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U17 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Hungary U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U17 attack 3.22 + Hungary U17 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hungary U17 attack 1.00 + England U17 defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

England U17 scores more
74%
level
16%
Hungary U17 scores more
10%

England U17 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

England U17 5 – 0 Hungary U17

England U17 beat Hungary U17 5-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at St George’s Park - Pitch 6 in Burton upon Trent, Staffordshire.