Energie 1–0 Tanéka: Result & Stats

Energie

FT

1 – 0

Tanéka

6/9/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 10Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Energie40%

×Draw34%

Tanéka26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnergieExpected goals in this matchTanéka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.72

Energie

0.97

Tanéka

0.72

Energie creates 35% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

0.85

creates per match

0.38

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Energie

0.85

Tanéka

0.38

allows per match

Energie

1.06

Tanéka

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie+0.00on par

Tanéka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

Tanéka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Energie or draw

74%

Energie or Tanéka

66%

Draw or Tanéka

60%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+

15%

Tanéka wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals

62%

Energie 2+ goals

25%

Energie 3+ goals

7%

Tanéka 1+ goals

51%

Tanéka 2+ goals

16%

Tanéka 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)

61%

Tanéka (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Tanéka away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.85 + Tanéka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tanéka attack 0.38 + Energie defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Energie scores more

40%

level

34%

Tanéka scores more

26%

Energie at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Energie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff