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Energie vs Dynamique Djougou — Championnat National 2019

Energie
Energie
FT
1 – 1
Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
5/21/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 10Stade Dogbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Energie45%
×Draw30%
Dynamique Djougou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie
1.19
Dynamique Djougou
0.81

Energie creates 47% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

creates per match

Energie
0.89
Dynamique Djougou
0.56

allows per match

Energie
1.05
Dynamique Djougou
1.49

finishing

Energie+0.00on par
Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

Dynamique Djougou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Energie or draw
75%
Energie or Dynamique Djougou
70%
Draw or Dynamique Djougou
55%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+
20%
Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals
70%
Energie 2+ goals
33%
Energie 3+ goals
12%
Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
56%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
19%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)
64%
Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

Dynamique Djougou away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.89 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.56 + Energie defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Energie scores more
45%
level
30%
Dynamique Djougou scores more
25%

Energie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Energie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Energie 1–1 Dynamique Djougou

Energie and Dynamique Djougou drew 1-1 in Championnat National on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dogbo in Dogbo.