Energie 0–1 Dragons: Result & Stats

Energie

FT

0 – 1

Dragons

11/24/2019

Championnat National · Round 6Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Energie35%

×Draw32%

Dragons33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnergieExpected goals in this matchDragons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.93

Energie

0.95

Dragons

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 115 away

0.88

creates per match

0.83

1.02

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Energie

0.88

Dragons

0.83

allows per match

Energie

1.02

Dragons

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie+0.00on par

Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

Dragons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Energie or draw

67%

Energie or Dragons

68%

Draw or Dragons

65%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+

13%

Dragons wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals

61%

Energie 2+ goals

25%

Energie 3+ goals

7%

Dragons 1+ goals

61%

Dragons 2+ goals

24%

Dragons 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)

51%

Dragons (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.01 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.88 + Dragons defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Dragons attack 0.83 + Energie defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Energie scores more

35%

level

32%

Dragons scores more

33%

Energie at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Energie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff