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Energie vs Bani Gansè — Championnat National 2019

Energie
Energie
FT
0 – 0
Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
1/4/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 12Stade Dogbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Energie36%
×Draw32%
Bani Gansè32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie
0.98
Bani Gansè
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 74 away

creates per match

Energie
0.89
Bani Gansè
0.74

allows per match

Energie
1.05
Bani Gansè
1.07

finishing

Energie+0.00on par
Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

Bani Gansè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Energie or draw
68%
Energie or Bani Gansè
68%
Draw or Bani Gansè
64%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+
14%
Bani Gansè wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals
62%
Energie 2+ goals
26%
Energie 3+ goals
8%
Bani Gansè 1+ goals
59%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
23%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)
53%
Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.89 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Energie defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Energie scores more
36%
level
32%
Bani Gansè scores more
32%

Energie at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Energie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Energie vs Bani Gansè

Energie and Bani Gansè drew 0-0 in Championnat National on January 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dogbo in Dogbo.