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Energie vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

Energie
Energie
FT
3 – 1
ASPAC
ASPAC
1/26/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 15Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Energie32%
×Draw33%
ASPAC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie
0.88
ASPAC
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 114 away

creates per match

Energie
0.93
ASPAC
0.87

allows per match

Energie
1.02
ASPAC
0.83

finishing

Energie+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Energie or draw
64%
Energie or ASPAC
67%
Draw or ASPAC
68%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+
11%
ASPAC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals
59%
Energie 2+ goals
22%
Energie 3+ goals
6%
ASPAC 1+ goals
61%
ASPAC 2+ goals
25%
ASPAC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)
47%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.83 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.93 + ASPAC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

ASPAC attack 0.87 + Energie defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Energie scores more
32%
level
33%
ASPAC scores more
36%

ASPAC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Energie 3 – 1 ASPAC

Energie beat ASPAC 3-1 in Championnat National on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.