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Energie vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Energie
Energie
FT
3 – 0
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
12/7/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Energie32%
×Draw32%
AS Sobemap37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie
0.91
AS Sobemap
1.00

AS Sobemap creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 106 away

creates per match

Energie
0.85
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Energie
1.06
AS Sobemap
0.97

finishing

Energie+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Energie or draw
63%
Energie or AS Sobemap
68%
Draw or AS Sobemap
68%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+
11%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals
60%
Energie 2+ goals
23%
Energie 3+ goals
6%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
63%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
26%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)
46%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.97 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.85 + AS Sobemap defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Energie defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Energie scores more
32%
level
32%
AS Sobemap scores more
37%

AS Sobemap at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Energie 3–0 AS Sobemap

Energie beat AS Sobemap 3-0 in Championnat National on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.