Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC II

Energie Cottbus

CANC

12:00

Hertha BSC II

1/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Energie Cottbus39%

×Draw20%

Hertha BSC II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie CottbusExpected goals in this matchHertha BSC II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.30

Energie Cottbus

2.25

Hertha BSC II

2.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.60

creates per match

3.11

1.50

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Energie Cottbus

2.60

Hertha BSC II

3.11

allows per match

Energie Cottbus

1.50

Hertha BSC II

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par

Hertha BSC II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus ↓

Hertha BSC II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus or draw

59%

Energie Cottbus or Hertha BSC II

80%

Draw or Hertha BSC II

61%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+

22%

Hertha BSC II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals

89%

Energie Cottbus 2+ goals

65%

Energie Cottbus 3+ goals

39%

Hertha BSC II 1+ goals

90%

Hertha BSC II 2+ goals

67%

Hertha BSC II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)

49%

Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Hertha BSC II away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus attack 2.60 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hertha BSC II attack 3.11 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Energie Cottbus scores more

39%

level

20%

Hertha BSC II scores more

41%

Hertha BSC II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha BSC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff