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Energie Cottbus vs BSC Süd 05 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Energie Cottbus
Energie Cottbus
FT
9 – 0
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Energie Cottbus55%
×Draw19%
BSC Süd 0525%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie Cottbus
2.46
BSC Süd 05
1.64

Energie Cottbus creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Energie Cottbus
2.60
BSC Süd 05
1.78

allows per match

Energie Cottbus
1.50
BSC Süd 05
2.33

finishing

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus or draw
75%
Energie Cottbus or BSC Süd 05
81%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
45%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+
35%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals
91%
Energie Cottbus 2+ goals
70%
Energie Cottbus 3+ goals
44%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
81%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
49%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)
69%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus attack 2.60 + BSC Süd 05 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

BSC Süd 05 attack 1.78 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Energie Cottbus scores more
55%
level
19%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
25%

Energie Cottbus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Energie Cottbus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Energie Cottbus vs BSC Süd 05

Energie Cottbus beat BSC Süd 05 9-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.