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Energie Cottbus vs Altglienicke — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Energie Cottbus
Energie Cottbus
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Altglienicke
Altglienicke
M. Hannemann 45'
J. Boziaris 45'
E. Qenaj 53'
D. Schickersinsky 13'
1/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Energie Cottbus38%
×Draw20%
Altglienicke41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie Cottbus
2.05
Altglienicke
2.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Energie Cottbus
2.60
Altglienicke
2.78

allows per match

Energie Cottbus
1.50
Altglienicke
1.50

finishing

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par
Altglienicke+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus ↓

Altglienicke →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus or draw
59%
Energie Cottbus or Altglienicke
80%
Draw or Altglienicke
62%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+
21%
Altglienicke wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals
87%
Energie Cottbus 2+ goals
61%
Energie Cottbus 3+ goals
33%
Altglienicke 1+ goals
88%
Altglienicke 2+ goals
63%
Altglienicke 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)
48%
Altglienicke (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Altglienicke away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus attack 2.60 + Altglienicke defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Altglienicke attack 2.78 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Energie Cottbus scores more
38%
level
20%
Altglienicke scores more
41%

Altglienicke at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
D. Schickersinsky
45'
M. Hannemann
45'
J. Boziaris
53'
E. Qenaj
Energie
Altglienicke
Claus-Dieter Wollitz
Manager: Claus-Dieter Wollitz
Karsten Heine
Manager: Karsten Heine

Friendlies Clubs: Energie Cottbus 2–2 Altglienicke

Energie Cottbus and Altglienicke drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Schickersinsky (13'), M. Hannemann (45'), J. Boziaris (45'), E. Qenaj (53').