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Energie Cottbus U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Energie Cottbus U19
Energie Cottbus U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
P. Heidrich 6'
D. Bogdanov 27'
8/30/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1938%
×Draw22%
Union Berlin U1940%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie Cottbus U19
1.75
Union Berlin U19
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 76 away

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19
1.80
Union Berlin U19
1.95

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19
1.66
Union Berlin U19
1.70

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par
Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw
60%
Energie Cottbus U19 or Union Berlin U19
78%
Draw or Union Berlin U19
62%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+
19%
Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals
83%
Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals
52%
Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals
25%
Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
83%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
54%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.75

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Union Berlin U19 scores more
40%

Union Berlin U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Heidrich
27'
D. Bogdanov
Energie
Union
K. Alain
Manager: K. Alain
M. Grote
Manager: M. Grote

Energie Cottbus U19 1 – 1 Union Berlin U19

Energie Cottbus U19 and Union Berlin U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 30, 2025.

Goals: P. Heidrich (6'), D. Bogdanov (27').

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.