Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

A. Seemann 62'

J. Zaydan 6'

A. Stephan 44'

M. Kponton 19'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Lipezker Straße Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1962%

×Draw19%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.23

Energie Cottbus U19

2.33

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.23

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

1.80

creates per match

0.81

1.66

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.80

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.66

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

81%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

81%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

38%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

39%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

90%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

67%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

41%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

71%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

35%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

19%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Zaydan

19'

M. Kponton

44'

A. Stephan

46'

J. Taubeneck← M. Schößler

54'

C. Kaba← M. Kponton

57'

S. Weißenberg← M. Jurisch

62'

A. Seemann

65'

Mohammad Moradi← F. Schubart

70'

C. Kobelt← S. Chentoufi

77'

B. Kehayov← K. Bajramovic

77'

D. Rank← T. Weilert

77'

L. Weigand← A. Stephan

82'

E. Skrijelj← J. Zaydan

Energie

Rot-Weiß

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kponton

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Alain

46'▲J. Taubeneck←▼M. Schößler

57'▲S. Weißenberg←▼M. Jurisch

65'▲Mohammad Moradi←▼F. Schubart

82'▲E. Skrijelj←▼J. Zaydan

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

TaubeneckWeißenbergMoradiSkrijeljSchöne

Manager: T. Kost

54'▲C. Kaba←▼M. Kponton

70'▲C. Kobelt←▼S. Chentoufi

77'▲B. Kehayov←▼K. Bajramovic

77'▲D. Rank←▼T. Weilert

77'▲L. Weigand←▼A. Stephan

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 substitutes

KabaKobeltKehayovRankWeigandMensah

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Energie Cottbus U19 and Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Zaydan (6'), M. Kponton (19'), A. Stephan (44'), A. Seemann (62').

The match was played at Lipezker Straße Kunstrasen in Cottbus.

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19