Energie Cottbus U19 3–1 Osnabrück U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Osnabrück U19

N. Weber 82'

M. Grundmann 39' (pen)

I. Beckmann 19'

B. van den Berg 31'

5/6/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 26Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1953%

×Draw21%

Osnabrück U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.47

Energie Cottbus U19

2.17

Osnabrück U19

1.47

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

1.83

creates per match

1.29

1.65

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.83

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.65

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

74%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Osnabrück U19

79%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

47%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

32%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

89%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

64%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

36%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

77%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.83 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.17

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

26%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

I. Beckmann

31'

B. van den Berg

39'

M. GrundmannPenalty

68'

S. Schlüschen← P. Wolf

68'

J. Bretgeld← Z. Atalan

70'

M. Schneider← G. Boakye

70'

T. Labes← D. Ladwig

78'

N. Weber← I. Beckmann

82'

D. Rosum← J. Burke

82'

N. Weber

83'

L. Dibra← B. van den Berg

85'

M. Bischoff← N. Janßen

Energie

Osnabrück

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Beckmann

Felgenträ

▼

Wolf

Manager: A. Richter

68'▲S. Schlüschen←▼P. Wolf

70'▲M. Schneider←▼G. Boakye

70'▲T. Labes←▼D. Ladwig

78'▲N. Weber←▼I. Beckmann

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

SchlüschenSchneiderLabesWeberRindelhardtKýčekMussijenko

Manager: D. Thioune

68'▲J. Bretgeld←▼Z. Atalan

82'▲D. Rosum←▼J. Burke

83'▲L. Dibra←▼B. van den Berg

85'▲M. Bischoff←▼N. Janßen

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

BretgeldRosumDibraBischoffTepeTiggesPiel

Match Recap: Energie Cottbus U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Energie Cottbus U19 beat Osnabrück U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2017.

Goals: I. Beckmann (19'), B. van den Berg (31'), M. Grundmann (39' pen), N. Weber (82').

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Energie Cottbus U19 vs Osnabrück U19