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Energie Cottbus U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Energie Cottbus U19
Energie Cottbus U19
CANC
10:00
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
12/13/2020DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1926%
×Draw19%
Mainz 05 U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie Cottbus U19
1.70
Mainz 05 U19
2.50

Mainz 05 U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19
1.40
Mainz 05 U19
3.00

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19
2.00
Mainz 05 U19
2.00

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw
45%
Energie Cottbus U19 or Mainz 05 U19
81%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
74%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+
12%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals
82%
Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals
51%
Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals
24%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
92%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
71%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.40 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mainz 05 U19 attack 3.00 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more
26%
level
19%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
55%

Mainz 05 U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — Match Preview

Energie Cottbus U19 face Mainz 05 U19 on December 13, 2020 in this DFB Junioren Pokal fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Energie Cottbus U19 host Mainz 05 U19 at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.