Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Magdeburg U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Magdeburg U19

A. Seemann 58'

L. Gramelsberger 29' (OG)

J. Frenzel 78'

M. Kadner 12'

2/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Lipezker Straße Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1944%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.84

Energie Cottbus U19

2.07

Magdeburg U19

1.84

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

1.80

creates per match

2.02

1.66

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.80

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.66

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

65%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Magdeburg U19

79%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

56%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

25%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

87%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

61%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

34%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

55%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.07

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

35%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Kadner

29'

L. GramelsbergerOwn goal

32'

C. Güllmeister← L. Gramelsberger

58'

A. Seemann

68'

M. Jurisch← S. Weißenberg

68'

A. Drews← C. Güllmeister

68'

K. Madumere← M. Kadner

68'

S. Chukwemeka← M. Adrian

73'

M. Preuß← M. Schößler

78'

J. Frenzel

80'

T. Ventzke← B. Hamidović

89'

E. Skrijelj← Jad Fadl

89'

J. Gärtner← A. Reschke

89'

P. Heidrich← J. Zaydan

Energie

Magdeburg

Strauß

Scheffler

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Alain

68'▲M. Jurisch←▼S. Weißenberg

73'▲M. Preuß←▼M. Schößler

89'▲E. Skrijelj←▼Jad Fadl

89'▲J. Gärtner←▼A. Reschke

89'▲P. Heidrich←▼J. Zaydan

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

JurischPreußSkrijeljGärtnerHeidrichGülmenWilke

Manager: D. Wölfel

32'▲C. Güllmeister←▼L. Gramelsberger

68'▲A. Drews←▼C. Güllmeister

68'▲K. Madumere←▼M. Kadner

68'▲S. Chukwemeka←▼M. Adrian

80'▲T. Ventzke←▼B. Hamidović

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

GüllmeisterDrewsMadumereChukwemekaVentzkeGantzke

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Magdeburg U19

Energie Cottbus U19 and Magdeburg U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Kadner (12'), L. Gramelsberger (29' o.g.), A. Seemann (58'), J. Frenzel (78').

The match was played at Lipezker Straße Kunstrasen in Cottbus.

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Energie Cottbus U19 2–2 Magdeburg U19